Abstract
Many factors influence whether an energy subsidy reform is successful. We define success as a reform that does not lead to social unrest and is not reversed. To better understand these factors, we apply logistic regression analysis to an original dataset capturing 392 distinct episodes of energy subsidy reform and their outcomes across 44 countries between 1995 and 2022. We find that larger energy price increases are more likely to trigger social unrest or lead to a reform reversal, pointing to the importance of gradual reform implementation.
