Abstract
The material intensity of the energy transition has been a topic of growing importance in the literature and policymaking over the last decade. Much of this debate has been founded on a range of future demand forecasts of the material requirements of the energy transition, primarily at a global level. However, these forecasts have varied considerably, which has created uncertainty about what materials may be deemed critical, both in terms of future material needs and in securing future supply. In this work, we use a dynamic material flow model to estimate future material requirements at the country level and assess the material demands of the energy transition in Saudi Arabia under different scenarios. We vary the metrics related to demand and its contextualization in terms of supply, along with key underlying assumptions, to highlight crucial design questions future material demand estimation at the country level and areas in which uncertainties may arise.
