This model represents a spread option-based formulation that adds a locational dimension to the conventional storage theory and is based on the prices of crude oil at two different locations, factoring in costs of storage and transportation, and the time required to transport oil between them.
This methodology offers a viable alternative to the traditional cost of carry approach; it can also estimate implied convenience yields and the shadow price of inventories, aiding commodity trading strategies.
The three key drivers of inventories—the cost of carry, convenience yield and spread option value—are estimated for eight primary international crude oil storage hubs located at major seaports using daily data from December 21, 2015 to January 25, 2019.